Kenya’s inflation climbed sharply to 5.6 per cent year on year in April 2026, the highest level recorded since March 2024, snapping a period of relative price stability and raising fresh concerns about household affordability across the country.
According to data released by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) on April 29, inflation accelerated from 4.4 per cent in March and 4.3 per cent in February, with month on month prices rising 1.4 per cent compared to just 0.5 per cent the previous month. The figures represent the steepest single month jump Kenya has seen in recent years.
“If we did not intervene, fuel prices would have gone much higher.” Treasury Secretary John Mbadi
The primary driver of the spike was transport costs, which surged 10 per cent in April compared to 3.8 per cent in March, a direct consequence of higher global oil prices linked to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. The Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) raised the price of super petrol by Sh9.37 to Sh197.60 per litre and diesel by Sh10.21 to Sh196.63, citing higher global oil landing costs.
Food and non alcoholic beverages also contributed significantly, rising 8.8 per cent year on year, up from 7.7 per cent in March, with staples such as tomatoes and potatoes recording visible price increases. Housing, water, and utilities edged up to 2.4 per cent, according to KNBS.
The government moved to cushion consumers, cutting Value Added Tax (VAT) on petroleum products from 16 per cent to 8 per cent and drawing on the fuel stabilization fund, spending Sh6.2 billion in April alone. Treasury Secretary John Mbadi acknowledged that without the intervention, pump prices and by extension inflation would have risen far higher, though deeper subsidies remain constrained by tight public finances and high debt servicing costs.
Despite the surge, the figure still falls within the government’s medium term target band of 2.5 to 7.5 per cent. However, analysts caution that inflation is expected to continue climbing, projecting a peak of 6.2 per cent by July 2026 as conflict oil pricing fully filters through supply chains.
The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK), which had cut its benchmark rate ten consecutive times from 13 per cent to 8.75 per cent between August 2024 and February 2026, paused its easing cycle at its April Monetary Policy Committee meeting, citing rising inflation risks from the global environment.
Kenya is also exploring emergency World Bank funding of between $580 million and $600 million from the lender’s rapid response facility to help shield the economy from further external shocks, though no formal request has yet been made.
