Kenya is set to begin construction of the proposed East Africa Refinery in Lamu on 30th September 2026, marking a major step in the country’s plans to expand its energy and industrial infrastructure. The project, backed by Nigerian industrialist Aliko Dangote and the Africa Finance Corporation (AFC), is expected to cost about Kshs 2.2 tn, with estimates in international markets ranging between USD15.0 bn and USD17.0 bn depending on the scope of infrastructure included.
The planned facility will have a processing capacity of approximately 700,000 barrels of crude oil per day, making it one of the largest planned refining projects in Africa and the largest proposed refinery in East Africa. Construction is expected to take about three years, according to government announcements.
The choice of Lamu gives the project access to the Indian Ocean and the wider Lamu Port-South Sudan-Ethiopia Transport (LAPSSET) Corridor. The location could allow the refinery to connect petroleum processing with storage, transportation and regional distribution infrastructure.
The refinery is also expected to form part of a wider industrial development around Lamu. Government plans include supporting infrastructure such as power generation and a special economic zone, which could attract manufacturing, logistics and other energy-intensive businesses. The project therefore extends beyond refining capacity. Its potential economic impact will depend on how effectively Kenya integrates the refinery with port infrastructure, pipelines, storage facilities and regional transport networks.
The scale of the proposed investment could create significant activity across construction, engineering, logistics and supporting services. Government estimates indicate that the wider project could generate about 60,000 jobs, while other government statements have placed the expected employment impact at more than 50,000 positions. The difference reflects varying estimates of the project’s wider economic footprint.
The project has also attracted international engineering expertise. Engineers India Limited (EIL) secured a contract valued at more than USD 450.0 mn to provide project management and engineering, procurement and construction management services for the planned refinery and petrochemical complex. EIL previously performed similar functions for Dangote’s 650,000-barrel-per-day refinery in Lekki, Nigeria.
This appointment moves the project beyond an investment announcement and into a more defined project-development phase. The refinery’s size means financing will remain an important factor throughout construction. Recent discussions between President William Ruto, Dangote and AFC have focused on financing arrangements and preparations for the project’s commencement.
Despite the project’s large refining capacity, securing sufficient crude oil supplies will remain critical to its commercial performance. Kenya currently does not produce enough crude oil to supply a refinery of this scale. Potential supply could therefore come from domestic production as well as neighboring producers such as Uganda and South Sudan, alongside seaborne crude imports.
Infrastructure will also influence the project’s ability to operate efficiently. The refinery will require reliable crude supply systems, storage, pipelines, power and transportation connections. The development of these supporting facilities will therefore be as important as the refinery itself.
Kenya currently relies heavily on imported refined petroleum products. A functioning refinery could change the country’s role within the regional petroleum supply chain by allowing Kenya to process crude locally and distribute refined products to domestic and neighboring markets.
The project’s 700,000-barrel-per-day capacity would exceed Kenya’s current domestic petroleum requirements, meaning regional exports would form an important part of its potential business model. The refinery could therefore serve markets across East and Central Africa if it achieves competitive production and distribution costs.
However, the project’s final economic impact will depend on several factors, including construction costs, crude availability, financing, environmental approvals, infrastructure development and demand across regional markets. The 30th September 2026 groundbreaking represents an important milestone for Dangote’s Lamu refinery after several years of discussions around its location, financing and commercial feasibility. With a planned capacity of 700,000 barrels per day, an estimated investment of roughly USD15.0–17.0 bn, and projected employment of tens of thousands of people, the project could have implications well beyond Kenya’s petroleum industry.
For Lamu, the refinery could accelerate development around the port and create demand for logistics, construction, accommodation, retail and industrial services. For Kenya, its significance will depend on whether the country can develop the supporting infrastructure and secure reliable crude supplies while managing the project’s environmental and social considerations. The September groundbreaking will therefore mark the beginning of the construction phase rather than the completion of the project’s commercial and infrastructure requirements.
