The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) has released its latest Monetary Policy Meeting Report, predicting a rise in cooking oil prices over the next three months. The report, published on Monday, December 9, 2024, attributes the expected price increase to high global market prices. Since Kenya relies heavily on imports for raw materials used in cooking oil production, the price hike is expected to follow the global trend.
According to the CBK, agricultural stakeholders also anticipate a potential increase in maize flour prices. “Some respondents to the November 2024 Agriculture Survey expect moderate upward pressure on prices of select cereal items such as green maize due to seasonal factors, and cooking oil on account of higher global prices,” the report notes.
This suggests that seasonal changes and external market conditions will play a role in influencing prices for key food staples in the coming months.
Despite these anticipated price hikes, the CBK report offers a more optimistic outlook for most other food prices. The majority of respondents to the November 2024 Agriculture Survey believe that inflation will either remain unchanged or decrease over the next three months.
Factors contributing to this positive forecast include improved food supply from ongoing harvests, favorable weather conditions, stable pump prices, and a steady exchange rate. As a result, food prices are expected to either stabilize or even decline.
The anticipated increase in cooking oil and maize flour prices highlights the ongoing volatility in the global market and its direct impact on the cost of living in Kenya. However, the overall inflationary pressures are expected to remain manageable, with other food prices benefiting from the favorable local conditions.
