Kenya’s mergers and acquisitions (M&A) market recorded a sharp increase in transaction value in the first half of 2026, despite a broader decline in African deal activity. The performance highlights Kenya’s continued attractiveness to strategic investors, although the concentration of transaction value in a small number of large deals suggests that headline growth should be assessed alongside market breadth.
Across Africa excluding South Africa, aggregate M&A value decreased by 10.0% to USD 5.6 bn in H1 2026 from USD 6.2 bn in H1 2025, while transaction volume decreased by 13.0% to 166 deals from 191 deals. Kenya recorded 25 M&A transactions valued at USD 1.4 bn in H1 2026, compared with 25 transactions worth USD 187.0 mn in H1 2025, representing a 670.5% increase in deal value while transaction volume remained unchanged. In contrast, Nigeria’s M&A value decreased by 88.9% to USD 105.8 mn from USD 956.6 mn, despite transaction volume increasing to 39 deals from 31 deals.
Kenya’s strong headline performance was largely driven by three major transactions. Nedbank’s proposed acquisition of a 66.0% stake in NCBA Group was valued at USD 855.0 mn, while Absa Group announced a USD 238.0 mn tender offer to increase its ownership of Absa Bank Kenya by up to 16.5%. Electric-mobility company Spiro also raised USD 215.0 mn in equity financing. Collectively, the three transactions represented 91.0% of Kenya’s reported H1 2026 M&A value.
The concentration provides an important perspective for investors. The Nedbank-NCBA transaction demonstrates the strategic value international financial institutions continue to place on East African banking markets, while the expected retention of NCBA’s remaining 34.0% stake as a listed interest maintains exposure to the Nairobi Securities Exchange. Absa’s proposed increase in ownership similarly reinforces the strategic importance of Kenya’s banking sector to regional financial groups.
Spiro’s USD 215.0 mn funding provides a different signal, demonstrating that capital is also being directed towards emerging sectors such as electric mobility and energy infrastructure. The diversity of these transactions suggests that investor interest extends beyond established financial services.
Kenya’s H1 2026 M&A performance therefore indicates strong strategic interest but does not necessarily demonstrate a broad expansion in market depth. Continued growth in transaction volumes across multiple sectors would provide stronger evidence of wider investor participation. Until then, the sharp increase in deal value should be interpreted in the context of the few large transactions that drove the market’s performance.
