Kenya’s demand for smartphones declined 7.8 percent in 2025, falling to 7.2 million units, a contraction that sets the country apart from a continent otherwise riding a sustained wave of mobile growth. While the dip may appear modest in isolation, it stands out sharply against a regional backdrop of accelerating shipments and points to a set of economic pressures that have quietly reshaped how Kenyans spend.
Africa’s smartphone market recorded nine consecutive quarters of growth through 2025, with the continent shipping 19.2 million units in the second quarter alone, representing a 7 percent year on year rise according to Canalys. The gains were spread widely: Egypt surged 21 percent, Nigeria rebounded 10 percent off the back of a more stable currency, and South Africa saw 5G smartphone shipments climb 63 percent year on year. Kenya moved in the opposite direction, slipping into decline at a moment when most of its neighbours were accelerating. Canalys noted that markets which struggled during this period were weighed down by weak demand and tighter import conditions.
The explanation lies largely in what has been happening inside Kenyan households. A Consumer Outlook survey conducted by NielsenIQ found that only 58 percent of Kenyans could comfortably cover basic needs such as food, housing and utilities, a drop of 10 percentage points from the previous year. Nine in ten respondents believed the economy had already fallen into recession, with middle aged earners and younger working adults reporting the sharpest financial strain. In that environment, replacing or upgrading a smartphone becomes a purchase that millions of families simply cannot justify. Across the retail sector, traders reported reduced spending on non essential goods, with consumers gravitating toward cheaper options or postponing purchases altogether.
Rising device prices compounded the problem. A volatile Kenya shilling, disrupted global supply chains and higher production costs among exporting nations all fed through to elevated retail prices for electronics throughout 2025. Even as headline inflation appeared relatively contained at 3.8 percent by mid year, the Central Bank Rate remained elevated at 9.75 percent, keeping borrowing costs high and limiting the appetite for financed purchases. The result was a market where the price of a new handset climbed even as consumers had less money to spend on one.
What the data makes clear, however, is that Kenyans did not stop using smartphones. They stopped buying new ones. The Communications Authority of Kenya reported that smartphones connected to mobile networks grew 2.1 percent in the first quarter of 2025, reaching 42.35 million devices, while mobile money subscriptions climbed 7.2 percent to 45.36 million. Digital engagement held steady or grew while hardware spending pulled back. Existing devices were kept in use longer, upgrade cycles lengthened and the market for new units softened as a result.
The longer term picture remains more encouraging. Statista projects Kenya’s smartphone market will grow at a compound annual rate of 7.84 percent between 2025 and 2030, with volumes expected to reach 11.4 million units by the end of the decade. A young population, near universal mobile broadband coverage and deepening reliance on mobile based financial services all underpin that outlook. Whether the market returns to growth sooner rather than later will depend, more than anything else, on how quickly household finances recover and whether the cost of living begins to ease for the majority of Kenyan consumers.
