Geopolitical conflicts are often viewed as distant events with consequences limited to the countries directly involved. But for an import-dependent economy such as Kenya, disruptions thousands of kilometres away can quickly alter the flow of goods, raise costs and force businesses to seek alternative suppliers.
The ongoing conflict involving Iran has offered a clear demonstration of this vulnerability. Kenya’s imports from the United Arab Emirates fell sharply in H1’2026, pushing the Gulf state from its position as Kenya’s second-largest source of imports to fourth. Saudi Arabia emerged as a major beneficiary, while India moved into second place.
The shift highlights how global conflicts can rapidly reshape trade relationships. Kenya’s import routes are not determined solely by price and commercial ties. They are increasingly influenced by the security of shipping lanes, the resilience of ports and the ability of supplier countries to move goods despite regional instability.
The Strait of Hormuz is at the centre of this challenge. The waterway has historically carried a significant share of global oil and energy shipments. Disruptions caused by the conflict have reduced shipping activity and forced exporters and importers to explore alternative routes. Gulf countries are now accelerating investments in pipelines, ports and infrastructure designed to reduce their dependence on vulnerable maritime chokepoints.
For Kenya, the implications are significant. The country relies heavily on imported petroleum products, with Gulf suppliers playing an important role in meeting domestic demand. When traditional supply chains are disrupted, importers must turn to alternative sources or routes, often at higher transport, insurance and logistics costs.
This is already changing the geography of Kenya’s trade. Saudi Arabia has gained from its ability to redirect some energy exports through alternative infrastructure, while suppliers outside the immediate conflict zone have become more attractive. Kenya’s imports from the UAE, meanwhile, fell 35.1% in the six months to June compared with the same period a year earlier, illustrating how quickly geopolitical risks can translate into changing trade patterns.
The lesson is that Kenya must begin viewing supply chains as a strategic economic issue rather than a purely commercial one. Dependence on a narrow group of suppliers or a single trade corridor can leave the economy exposed when conflict, sanctions or attacks disrupt global transport.
Diversifying import sources should therefore become a priority. Kenya needs stronger commercial relationships with suppliers across different regions, while businesses should develop contingency plans for disruptions to major shipping routes. Greater investment in storage capacity, particularly for strategic commodities such as fuel, would also provide a buffer against sudden supply shocks.
At the same time, Kenya’s role as a regional trade hub makes investment in resilient infrastructure increasingly important. Efficient ports, storage facilities and transport networks can help the country respond more quickly when global trade patterns shift.
The Iran conflict may eventually end, but the lessons for Kenya will remain. In an increasingly fragmented world, the most secure import route may not always be the shortest or cheapest. Economic resilience will increasingly depend on having alternatives before a crisis begins.
