Kenya’s fuel supply chain is undergoing a significant logistical shift as global oil trade routes adjust to disruptions caused by the escalating conflict in the Middle East. With traditional loading points in the Arabian Gulf increasingly exposed to geopolitical risk, oil marketers have diversified sourcing to alternative hubs in India, Belgium and the Red Sea to maintain consistent petroleum inflows into the country.
Under the government-to-government fuel supply framework initiated in March 2023, Kenya has been relying on Gulf-based suppliers including Saudi Aramco, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company and Emirates National Oil Company. However, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which handles nearly 25 percent of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments, has forced a strategic pivot in logistics to safeguard supply continuity.
Recent shipment data indicates that 239.1 million litres of petrol are being sourced from the Port of Antwerp-Bruges in Belgium, with deliveries expected at the Port of Mombasa between April 16 and April 27, 2026. In parallel, 156.75 million litres of fuel are scheduled for loading at Sikka port in India, comprising 81.15 million litres of dual-purpose kerosene and 75.6 million litres of diesel. These shipments are expected to arrive between April 12 and April 21, 2026. Additional deliveries include 82.38 million litres of kerosene already discharged in Mombasa on March 19 from Sikka, alongside cargo from Jizan in the Red Sea delivered between March 18 and March 20.
Kenya’s current fuel reserves stand at 159.89 million litres of diesel, 109.34 million litres of petrol and 145.15 million litres of dual-purpose kerosene. These volumes translate to 16 days of diesel cover, 14 days for petrol and 47 days for kerosene. Incoming shipments are projected to extend this coverage by an additional 22 days for diesel, seven days for petrol and 26 days for kerosene, reinforcing short-term supply stability.
A total of 12 vessels have either delivered or are scheduled to deliver fuel between March 18 and April 27, underscoring the scale of logistical adjustments underway. Notably, only one vessel loaded from Jebel Ali in the United Arab Emirates has been affected by the Strait of Hormuz disruption, highlighting the effectiveness of the rerouting strategy.
The shift to alternative supply hubs also reflects broader global adjustments. Countries such as Slovenia, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh have already introduced fuel rationing measures due to constrained supply, while energy firms have warned of potential shortages if maritime routes remain disrupted. Kenya’s reliance on long-term contracts has helped cushion it from volatility in spot market pricing, where premiums have surged amid uncertainty.
Despite emerging risks around the Red Sea corridor, particularly near the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, authorities maintain that supply chains remain intact. Confirmed deliveries of 330 million litres of petrol for the April cycle further support this outlook, indicating that contingency planning and diversified sourcing are mitigating immediate supply risks.
The evolving logistics highlight the growing importance of flexible supply chains in energy security. As geopolitical tensions continue to reshape global trade flows, Kenya’s ability to adapt sourcing strategies while maintaining adequate reserves will remain critical in shielding the domestic economy from external shocks, particularly those linked to fuel prices and inflationary pressures.
